Saïda Bédar, The American–Israeli war in the Middle East: toward the collapse of the Iranian regime and the partition of Lebanon?, Studies and Analyses – Géostratégie Analyses, 25 March 2026
The war against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, is part of the American–Israeli strategy pursued since October 2023 (Gaza–Lebanon–Syria–Iran), aimed at reshaping the Middle East into a “new order”—one that could curb the dynamics associated with the rise of the Global South, the challenge to dollar hegemony, and the normalization of the Middle Eastern bloc within a Eurasian pole of power. While Washington frames its objective as the degradation of Iran’s military (and nuclear) capabilities, a longer-term perspective on U.S. strategy over the past four decades suggests a broader aim: the systemic weakening of Iran and its neutralization within a regional order increasingly detached from U.S. power interests. This is not, therefore, a regime-change war (in fact it tends rather to radicalize the regime), but a preemptive war of destabilization.
For Israel, the aim is likewise to weaken Iran, and the Syria–Lebanon–Palestine nexus, but with a more immediate agenda consisting in occupying part of Lebanon in order ultimately to engineer a “land-for-peace” type exchange, as it did with Egypt regarding the Sinai, and as it hopes to do with the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa concerning the buffer zone around, and in the longer term part of, the Golan. The aim extends beyond the mere neutralization of Hezbollah to encompass the creation of a demilitarized belt surrounding Israel and the expansion of its strategic depth—Gaza–Sinai/West Bank–Jordan / South Lebanon–Golan plus buffer zone.
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